Израиль, как государство

[Sedwards33123]

Israel-Iran Update:

No public information concerning the timing or nature of the Iranian response to the assassination of Hamas's leader on Iranian soil, however, Al-Jazeera YouTube channel viewership is 2x baseline.  The Saudis have contacted Iran to discuss bilateral ties, but in reality, this was to urge restraint.

Israel has already demonstrated that it can shoot down any incoming missiles, meaning that if yet another missile barrage is selected at the mode of attack, it will be largely ineffectual.  As there have been many myserious explosions in Iran over the years, there is nothing fundamentally difference about this latest incident except for a growing sense amongst the Iranian public that Iran is the next domino after Lebanon falls. The appetite for direct Iranian involvement is coming from the bottom, up.  There is a widespread perception that the loss of Raisi was also Israel's responsibility.  Underneath all of this is an Israeli policy which will not permit Iran access to nuclear weapons.  We still do not have definitive answers as to how it was that the October 7th attack could have been permitted despite full knowledge of the Mossad of the impending attacks.  The motive for allowing the attacks seems quite clear.

Saudi Arabia has also made it clear that if Iran gets a bomb, they'll get a bomb.  Israel doesn't want either of those countries having nuclear weapons.  Israel won't survive if either of these countries have nuclear weapons.

[djsvarnoiy]

А мне кажется, что кто-то через Израиль хочет втянуть США в эту войну, тогда все быстро забудут про Трампа и он проиграет.

[Николай Григорьевич Зуб]

There is a widespread perception that the loss of Raisi was also Israel's responsibility. 

В ближайшее время до конца года РФ заключит договор о сотрудничестве с Ираном.

[djsvarnoiy]

В ближайшее время до конца года РФ заключит договор о сотрудничестве с Ираном.

Сегодня-завтра война, тогда что?

[Николай Григорьевич Зуб]

А мне кажется, что кто-то через Израиль хочет втянуть США в эту войну, тогда все быстро забудут про Трампа и он проиграет.

Чтобы США воевали с кем?
Трамп за Израиль, но вот воевать сомневаюсь, что будет.
Иначе это может стать третьей мировой войной, куча стран в нее втянется.

[djsvarnoiy]

Чтобы США воевали с кем?
Трамп за Израиль, но вот воевать сомневаюсь, что будет.
Иначе это может стать третьей мировой войной, куча стран в нее втянется.

Трампа еше не избрали, демократы воду мутят

[Николай Григорьевич Зуб]

Сегодня-завтра война, тогда что?

Вот это првильный вопрос, но при обсуждениях это наверное обговаривали и подписание отложили на конец года, хотя договор уже есть.

[Sedwards33123]

А мне кажется, что кто-то через Израиль хочет втянуть США в эту войну, тогда все быстро забудут про Трампа и он проиграет.

Correct.  Traditionally, an emergent crisis such as a war gives a popularity boost to the incumbent party.  In this particular case, as the incumbent is not technically the candidate and is seen as weak, they aren't going to be able to make the "You shouldn't change your horse mid-stream" argument which George Bush made in 2004.  This won't stop the Democrats from trying.  The Israel-Iran situation, however, if it helps the Democrats, will only do so incidentally.  Israel is trying to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons.  They've assassinated Raisi and continue to move the chess pieces around to ensure they get the chance to topple the regime as a whole.  Anything the Democrats can do to enhance their chances will have to be done very soon.  It looks like they're pulling on all the levers:  Venezuela, Iran, Ukraine, China, etc. stoking additional conflict in all of these areas.

[Николай Григорьевич Зуб]

Трампа еше не избрали, демократы воду мутят

Харис против Израиля.
Хотя недово была их сторонником.

[Николай Григорьевич Зуб]

Israel is trying to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons.

Но сам Израиль незаконно получил и имеет ядерное оружие.
И никто не поднимает эту проблему об этом незаконном распространии ЯО.

[Sedwards33123]

В ближайшее время до конца года РФ заключит договор о сотрудничестве с Ираном.

I understand that there is technically a standing mutual defense pact between Iran and Russia although no analysts believe that Russia would come to Iran's defense in a crisis.  The promise of defense was a sweetener for a deal which revolved around shipping rights and the sale of S-300s.  Iran is caught in the middle of larger forces who have other priorities besides Iran.  Not even the Iranian government cares about its people, it seems.

They have all kinds of special weapons tailor-made for this, including the GBU-57 warhead as well as UH-72X modified Lakota helicopters which have a X-Ray pulse emitters producing lethal X-Rays meant to fry electronics.  Part of the plan is to send a couple of dozen of these modified to fly as drones into Iran and to fly them over important cities to take out critical system, then fly on to the next city, and so on.  This was what the CHAMP missile was supposed to do, but the CHAMP missile never worked as intended and so they moved the program over to a helicopter platform.

[Sedwards33123]

Но сам Израиль незаконно получил и имеет ядерное оружие.
И никто не поднимает эту проблему об этом незаконном распространии ЯО.

This is true.  Outrageously, the CIA furnished the first of these weapons to Israel and Mossad stole plutonium from Kerr McGee, resulting in the murder of American Karen Silkwood by Mossad in 1974.  She noticed that 40kg of plutonium was missing and thought it was merely a workplace safety issue, thinking that someone simply made a clerical error and that it was gross negligence.  Literally on her way to meet with a journalist at a hotel in Oklahoma City, she was run off the road by assassins, a bottle of Methaqualone was tossed, open, into into the car and the documents she had with her were removed from the car before the police arrived.

Israel exists to protect British oil interests in the Middle East.  Iran, which controls a great deal of oil, should it acquire nuclear weapons, would become effectively impervious to potential future efforts to obtain this oil by the British.  Therefore, this cannot be permitted.

[Николай Григорьевич Зуб]

Iran, which controls a great deal of oil, should it acquire nuclear weapons, would become effectively impervious to potential future efforts to obtain this oil by the British. 

Я не знаю, как у нас будут строиться взаимоотношения, но протитворакетные системы С-400 РФ поставит в Иран точно.

[Николай Григорьевич Зуб]

I understand that there is technically a standing mutual defense pact between Iran and Russia although no analysts believe that Russia would come to Iran's defense in a crisis. 

Нет в течении полугода, может раньше будет заключен договор, он уже согласован.

[Sedwards33123]

Нет в течении полугода, может раньше будет заключен договор, он уже согласован.

The latest disinformation is that Israel's strike against Haniyeh was conducted not by an F-35, but by a bomb planted in the building months prior.  Yet, they showed footage taken from the perspective of one of the F-35s of the explosion.  Generally, you don't get this kind of footage except when it's an airstrike and the asymmetric blast plume is a hallmark of a munition with a great deal of horizontal velocity.  Clearly, this claim of an explosive planted in the building is meant to create confusion, but given that no one is likely to believe this story, I am not sure who is supposed to be confused by it.